In terms of Western decline and Eastern rise it is not just the economies that are moving apart. On the day when an old hero of the 1982 Falklands War, Major-General Julian Thompson, warned just how vulnerable Britain’s South Atlantic territories are to foreign conquest because of military cuts, it was announced that Chinese annual military spending had reached $100 billion for the first time.
While the UK and its Western allies, including the United States, are planning and executing further savings on defence budgets, China and many other Asian nations are actively rearming with the latest hardware. Although an arms race has yet to begin, India and Japan are concerned at the rate of increase in China’s military spending – up 11.2% this year alone. This does not include any off-balance-sheet spending too, which is believed to add as much as 50% more than the official figure.
China obviously rejects any notion that this extra resource allocation is anything to be feared. The Beijing government’s declaration of China’s peaceful rise is still the national mantra, and there is no acknowledgement that massive more arms spending could be seen to contradict this strategic objective. “China is committed to peaceful development and follows a national defence policy that is defensive in nature. China’s military will not in the least pose a threat to other countries” a National People’s Congress spokesman said.
Despite the smooth words, the budget increase is causing concern amongst China’s 12 Asia-Pacific neighbours – particularly when it becomes apparent that by 2015 Beijing’s military spending will have surpassed their combined defence allocation. The source of this unease is China’s increasing assertiveness over long-standing territorial claims.
The South China Sea is the likeliest flash point, given that China’s demand for full sovereignty are being resisted by half a dozen nations. Japan and India both have disputes with China too, with India having fought a 1962 war over the contested areas. Indeed, India’s Prime Minister has been quoted as saying that his country “must prepare to counter China’s territorial ambitions”.
China also has economic interests to think of. The deployment of Chinese armed police to the Mekong river area in South East Asia last year was partly to protect their investments in the region, as well as expressing their local muscle. The development of a blue water navy – as evidenced by its new aircraft carrier development – is also designed to ensure China can further protect its international interests, especially around trade.
The truth however is that no one really knows how and why China is enhancing its military capabilities. The opaqueness of the Government means that its actual and potential rivals often have to guess at what they are doing.
Luckily for America, it still has some breathing space when it comes to military superiority given that its defence spending is still five times that of the Middle Kingdom. China recognises that this means there is a significant imbalance between the two, and as such is looking obliquely at the situation to nullify the US lead more quickly than if it went into standard competition with the world’s superpower. An article written in the Harvard Asia Pacific Review sums it up so:
“Despite America’s overwhelming military superiority, China aims to exploit vulnerabilities in key US capabilities using counter-space, counter-carrier, counter-air, and information warfare to prevent the United States from dominating a military confrontation or achieving quick and easy victory.”
The US has made Asia the centre of its foreign policy for the coming century. As such, it is highly likely that it will take into keen consideration China’s rising military capabilities to stay ahead of the race. The difficulty though will be in the understanding China’s plans. So long as it keeps the world guessing at where this extra spending is going and for what reason, Beijing will be well placed to ensure that its aims and objectives are easier to achieve without resorting to actual force.